MSNBC Says OH - 15 is in the Top 10 of Seats Likely to Switch in 2010

*** First Read's Top 10 House Takeovers: If it's Friday, it's another First Read Top 10 list -- this time our look at what we consider the 10 most likely congressional districts to switch parties in November:

1. LA-2 (R-Cao): The Vietnamese-American, who surprisingly won this African-American majority district that was held by convicted William Jefferson, has been a Democratic target since his 2008 victory and is facing an uphill battle.
2. TN-6 (D-Open-Gordon): The retirement of Democrat Bart Gordon makes this GOP-leaning district a nearly automatic pick-up for Republicans.
3. DE-AL (R-Open-Castle): Mike Castle's decision to run for the Senate gives Democrats an excellent chance of winning Delaware's sole congressional seat.
4. LA-3 (D-Open-Melancon): Once again, a Senate committee's gain is the congressional committee's loss. Rep. Charlie Melancon's decision to run against David Vitter for Senate gives the GOP another good takeover opportunity.
5. IN-8 (D-Open-Ellsworth): Brad Ellsworth's decision to run for the Senate seat opened up by Evan Bayh's exit puts this once-longtime GOP seat potentially back in the Republican column.
6. NY-29 (D-Open-Massa): Whatever freshman Eric Massa's reason for not running for reelection, his retirement gives the GOP a very good chance in this Upstate New York district McCain carried in ‘08.
7. MD-1 (D-Kratovil): Freshman Frank Kratovil, who eked out a narrow victory in ‘08, looks to be in danger in this traditionally Republican district. Obama may have won the state overwhelmingly, but McCain won the district 58%-40%. And there won't be an Obama surge this time.
8. IL-10 (R-Open-Kirk): The third-best chance for Democrats this cycle is Mark Kirk's old seat; Kirk is running for the Senate.
9. KS-3 (D-Open-Moore): Another retirement. Dennis Moore's decision to not run for re-election has given the GOP yet another target. And Democrats still don't have a candidate. Some think the best Dem could be Moore's wife, but she hasn't committed.
10. OH-15 (D-Kilroy): This perennial target seat could be switching hands, as the incumbent Democrat here underperformed Obama in 2008

*** Top 10 House Toss-Ups: Here, in alphabetical order by state, are what we consider to be the 10 most competitive House districts, all of which are held by Democrats: CO-4 (D-Markey); ID-1 (D-Minnick); NM-2 (D-Teague); NH-2 (D-Open-Hodes); NV-3 (D-Titus); OH-1 (D-Driehaus); PA-7 (D-Open-Sestak);TN-8 (D-Open-Tanner); VA-5 (D-Perriello); and WA-3 (D-Open-Baird).

*** Top 10 Majority Makers: And here, in alphabetical order by state, are what we consider to be 10 districts -- where Democrats are currently favored -- that could tell us whether or not Republicans will win back control of the House: AZ-8 (D-Giffords); IA-3 (D-Boswell); MO-4 (D-Skelton); NY-1 (D-Bishop); OH-16 (D-Boccieri); OH-18 (D-Space); PA-8 (D-Murphy); SC-5 (D-Spratt); WV-1 (D-Mollohan); and WI-8 (D-Kagen).

*** More midterm news: In Arkansas, on the same day that Bill Clinton's spokesman said that the former president was backing Blanche Lincoln in her Democratic primary, EMILY's List said it wouldn't be helping the incumbent Democrat... In Massachusetts, Rep. William Delahunt (D) announced his retirement; the Rothenberg Political Report moved the district from "Safe" to "Democrat Favored"... And in Wyoming, Gov. Dave Freudenthal's (D) announcement that he won't seek another term gives Republicans an excellent shot at taking over the governor's mansion.