National Journal Hotline - Kilroy's Down - It certainly means something when an incumbent is both outraised and outbanked

July 16, 2010 8:56 AM | |

By Reid Wilson

Good Friday morning. Your Starting Lineup may be late for a few days, given some staffing changes, but we're still here, don't worry.

Here's today's edition, a special look at the winners and losers of the second quarter fundraising circuit:

Sharron Angle: Angle's win in the GOP primary last month had some GOPers nervous -- how could someone who barely raises money compete with a juggernaut like Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid? Well, Angle made up some ground, pulling in $2.3M after the primary. In total last quarter, Angle raised $2.6M, slightly more than Reid's $2.4M.

Reid still has a huge advantage, with $9M in the bank compared to just $1.8M for Angle. And he's using his cash to his benefit; a new Mason-Dixon poll out this morning for the Las Vegas Review-Journal shows Reid leading Angle, 44%-37%. But Angle's no pushover, as her mega-haul shows.

Charlie Crist: Crist bolted the GOP primary field last quarter and he still managed to pull in $1.8M -- almost double what Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) raised. Crist's $8.2M in the bank won't guarantee him a solid result in Nov., but without the party apparatus behind him, it's an excellent start. One lesson: Approval ratings matter, and people still like Gov. Crist.

We could have as easily put ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) in this category. At an incredible $4.5M raised, Rubio's proving he's taking advantage of GOP anger over Crist's switch. Still, Rubio has just $4.4M in the bank after raising more than $11M in total. If that money isn't going toward reserving TV time in the future, that burn rate should concern Rubio fans.

Barbara Boxer: The CA senator is looking at public polls that show her opponent, ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R), running a competitive race. So it helps that Boxer won the quarter, pulling in $4.6M and reserving $11.3M in cash on hand. Boxer may not be the most popular senator in office, but she'll never be without the resources to tell her side of the story.

Fiorina, meanwhile, has just $620K in the bank after winning a competitive primary. She's already raised $5M and given herself another $5.5M, which amounts to a heck of a burn rate. We've noticed Fiorina's big burn rate before, and she's said she's not willing to put Meg Whitman-like money into her own race. So is she on a sustainable path, or will she have to break that pledge and write herself a bigger check?

John Boozman: The congressman running against Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) had the opportunity to take advantage of a costly Dem primary and build his fundraising edge over a bloodied foe. Boozman did not do that. Instead, Boozman raised just $622K in the second quarter and spent $501K on his own primary win. Added to his stockpiled cash, Boozman has just $484K in the bank.

That's a quarter of the $1.9M that Lincoln has available, and Lincoln raised $2.6M last quarter, more than 4 times Boozman's haul. Then again, with poll numbers showing Boozman leading by such a wide margin, will the disparity matter? If outside groups are going to have an impact on any race, it's here, where both incumbents are relatively cash-poor and advertising is cheap.

Charlie Bass: Bass wants his old northern NH seat back, but it's not going to be cheap, and Bass hasn't proven he's on par with either of his Dem rivals' fundraising abilities. Bass raised $170K last quarter and had $360K in the bank. That's well below attorney Ann McLane Kuster (D), who raised $316K and has $745K lying around, and Katrina Swett (D), who pulled in $188K and has $1.15M, largely left over from an aborted Senate bid in '08.

Bass is going to face a big problem that every GOPer in recent years has run into -- a problem named John Lynch. The Dem governor has a great political machine, and that should help turn out voters for either Dem winner. The GOP needs to build a strong machine to get its voters out for competitive House and SEN races.

Mary Jo Kilroy: It's often misleading when an incumbent member of Congress is outraised by an opponent -- that opponent may just be taking advantage of low-hanging fruit. But it certainly means something when an incumbent is both outraised and outbanked by a rival, and lest anyone forget, ex-state Sen. Steve Stivers (R) is reminding them he's one of the GOP's best candidates.

Kilroy raised just $229K in the second quarter, less than half the total Stivers brought in, $532K. Stivers has $1.2M in the bank, while Kilroy is keeping just $933K. In '08, Kilroy outspent Stivers and won by just over 2k votes, aided largely by turnout driven by Pres. Obama. This year, she will have none of those advantages, putting her 2k-vote edge in real jeopardy.