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National Journal - Kilroy is the most vulnerable Democrat incumbent nationally and most likely to lose in November
Date:
Monday, July 26, 2010 House Race Rankings
The Hotline's Tim Sahd Assesses Which House Seats Are Most Likely To Switch Party Control This Year
Monday, July 26, 2010
Updated on July 27.
Since we last published our rankings, two important clues have emerged to give us some help in navigating the general election landscape.
One is the second-quarter FEC reports, which in some cases helped Democrats' cause. That's because the party's incumbents have built up solid war chests in anticipation of extremely tough contests in the fall. Conversely, many of their Republican challengers start the general election in relatively weak positions, mostly because primaries have exhausted their stockpiles.
But that should not give Democrats false comfort, for the Republican wave still appears to be building. Another important clue for November -- revealed late last week -- comes directly from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and it does not inspire confidence. The committee reserved $28 million worth of general election air time for 39 vulnerable incumbents. For the most part there were few surprises on the list, as most were already expected to face tough races. Still, the list served as confirmation of which incumbents do indeed face the toughest races.
So with the help of these factors, here is our expanded list of 40 races, which again feature a heavy majority of Democratic-held seats.
Since we last published our rankings, two important clues have emerged to give us some help in navigating the general election landscape.
One is the second-quarter FEC reports, which in some cases helped Democrats' cause. That's because the party's incumbents have built up solid war chests in anticipation of extremely tough contests in the fall. Conversely, many of their Republican challengers start the general election in relatively weak positions, mostly because primaries have exhausted their stockpiles.
But that should not give Democrats false comfort, for the Republican wave still appears to be building. Another important clue for November -- revealed late last week -- comes directly from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and it does not inspire confidence. The committee reserved $28 million worth of general election air time for 39 vulnerable incumbents. For the most part there were few surprises on the list, as most were already expected to face tough races. Still, the list served as confirmation of which incumbents do indeed face the toughest races.
So with the help of these factors, here is our expanded list of 40 races, which again feature a heavy majority of Democratic-held seats.
7. Ohio-15 Mary Jo Kilroy (D) (17)
'08 nominee Steve Stivers (R) is a fundraising machine; he doubled up Kilroy in fundraising in the last three months, and now has outbanked her. Add that to the fact that Kilroy has a pretty liberal voting record for this swing CD, and she's in a world of hurt.
Link To Steve
